22.38 Probability And Its Applications To Reliability, Quality Control, And Risk Assessment

As taught in: Fall 2005

Fault tree for external tank and solid rocket booster.

A fault tree from the NASA Accident Analysis Team in Report of the Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident. (Image courtesy of NASA.)

Level:

Graduate

Instructors:

Prof. Michael Golay

Course Features

Course Description

This course covers interpretations of the concept of probability. Topics include basic probability rules; random variables and distribution functions; functions of random variables; and applications to quality control and the reliability assessment of mechanical/electrical components, as well as simple structures and redundant systems. The course also considers elements of statistics; Bayesian methods in engineering; methods for reliability and risk assessment of complex systems (event-tree and fault-tree analysis, common-cause failures, human reliability models); uncertainty propagation in complex systems (Monte Carlo methods, Latin Hypercube Sampling); and an introduction to Markov models. Examples and applications are drawn from nuclear and other industries, waste repositories, and mechanical systems.