22.38 Probability And Its Applications To Reliability, Quality Control, And Risk Assessment

As taught in: Fall 2005

Fault tree for external tank and solid rocket booster.

A fault tree from the NASA Accident Analysis Team in Report of the Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident. (Image courtesy of NASA.)




Prof. Michael Golay

Course Features

Course Description

This course covers interpretations of the concept of probability. Topics include basic probability rules; random variables and distribution functions; functions of random variables; and applications to quality control and the reliability assessment of mechanical/electrical components, as well as simple structures and redundant systems. The course also considers elements of statistics; Bayesian methods in engineering; methods for reliability and risk assessment of complex systems (event-tree and fault-tree analysis, common-cause failures, human reliability models); uncertainty propagation in complex systems (Monte Carlo methods, Latin Hypercube Sampling); and an introduction to Markov models. Examples and applications are drawn from nuclear and other industries, waste repositories, and mechanical systems.